Last Thursday, parts of western Japan felt some small earthquakes, and both local and national governments quickly took action. Meteorologists put out a temporary tsunami warning, and a special committee, for the first time ever, warned that a big earthquake might happen in the next week. Because of this, high-speed trains slowed down, causing travel delays, and the prime minister canceled his trips abroad.
In the end, the government lifted most of the warnings and reported no major damage from the 7.1-magnitude earthquake. However, the country remains on high alert because it’s summer vacation time, a busy travel season. Japan is very focused on being prepared for earthquakes.
Some experts question if the recent warnings were necessary or accurate and worry that resources might be diverted from areas with a lower risk of earthquakes. Japan, located on the Ring of Fire, experiences a lot of seismic activity because it’s near four tectonic plates. Professor Shoichi Yoshioka from Kobe University notes that about 10% of the world’s big earthquakes happen in or around Japan, making it more quake-prone than Europe or the eastern U.S.
The worst recent earthquake in Japan was the 2011 Tohoku quake, which had a magnitude of 9.1 and caused a major tsunami and nuclear disaster, killing about 20,000 people. Another significant threat is the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, which could be extremely powerful, with magnitudes over 9. While scientists say it could happen in a few decades, opinions vary on its likelihood.
The government has long warned about the Nankai Trough quake, and it’s widely known. However, some scientists argue that focusing too much on this potential quake might not be the best approach, especially when other areas of Japan also face serious earthquake risks but receive less attention.
Debate Rages Over Nankai Trough Earthquake Forecasts: Experts Question Accuracy and Predictions
The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometre-long (435-mile) zone where tectonic plates slip under each other. This process causes many of the world’s earthquakes and tsunamis, especially in these subduction zones.
Currently, the tectonic plate under the Philippine Sea is slowly sliding beneath the plate where Japan sits. This movement is just a few centimetres each year, according to a 2013 report from the Earthquake Research Committee.
Severe earthquakes have struck the Nankai Trough about every 100 to 200 years. The last major quakes were in 1944 and 1946, both with a magnitude of 8.1. These earthquakes caused significant damage in Japan, killing at least 2,500 people, injuring thousands, and destroying tens of thousands of homes.
The Japanese government has warned there is a 70% to 80% chance of another major earthquake in the next 30 years, with a magnitude between 8 and 9. However, these predictions are controversial.
Professor Shoichi Yoshioka from Kobe University thinks the 70%-80% chance might be too high and that the data might be flawed. Despite this, he believes a major earthquake will definitely happen in the future.
Professor Robert Geller from the University of Tokyo is more skeptical. He calls the idea of the Nankai Trough earthquake a “made-up construct” and a “purely hypothetical scenario.”
Are Earthquake Predictions Overblown? Experts Debate Accuracy and Public Safety Measures
He also argued that earthquakes don’t follow a regular pattern and can happen anywhere at any time. This makes it hard to predict the next quake based on past ones.
There’s debate among scientists about this. Traditionally, seismologists have believed that stress builds up slowly along a fault line and then releases suddenly in an earthquake, in a cycle called the “stick-slip” process. However, newer research suggests this isn’t always true.
Even if a threat exists, the chances are very low. Both Yoshioka and Geller think the recent public safety measures were too extreme or unnecessary. After an earthquake, a bigger one can sometimes follow, which is why the authorities issued an unusual warning last Thursday. But even then, the chance of a Nankai Trough earthquake happening the next day is still very small—less than 1%.
Geller warned that if warnings are given too often for low probabilities, people might start ignoring them. “You’d be like the boy who cried wolf,” he said.
Nationwide Alert Spurs Urgent Preparations as Japan Faces Ongoing Earthquake Threat
So far, people in Japan are staying very alert and haven’t shown any signs of getting tired of the warnings.
Yota Sugai, a 22-year-old college student, said the warning he saw on TV made him feel scared and urgent. After the recent quake, he got emergency supplies like food and water, checked online maps for dangerous areas, and thought about helping his relatives in coastal areas with evacuation plans.
He said the New Year’s Day earthquake, which was a strong 7.5 magnitude and caused many deaths, made him realize how unpredictable and powerful earthquakes can be.
Similarly, 21-year-old student Mashiro Ogawa has prepared an emergency kit at home and advised her parents to do the same. She’s also changing her home’s setup to make it safer, like moving shelves away from her bed.
She said the danger now feels very real to her, even though it didn’t before.
People in Japan are taking these warnings seriously because the country often experiences earthquakes, and the memories of past disasters, like the 2011 quake, are still fresh. This ongoing fear and recent experiences contribute to Japan’s strong focus on earthquake preparedness, according to Yoshioka from Kobe University.
This focus on preparation helps Japan avoid major tragedies like the 2011 earthquake. Japan is known for its strong earthquake preparedness, with advanced infrastructure, strict building codes, and effective rescue systems.
Megumi Sugimoto, an associate professor at Osaka University who studies disaster prevention, explained that preparedness starts early. Even kindergartens hold earthquake and evacuation drills for young children.
She also noted that Japan faces other disasters, like typhoons and heavy rain, especially in summer. Being aware and having emergency supplies can help with all types of disasters.
However, there’s still room for improvement. Sugimoto and Robert Geller from the University of Tokyo said the recent Noto earthquake showed problems in Japan’s disaster response. Road collapses left some areas cut off, and many people were still homeless months later.
They also worry that focusing too much on the Nankai Trough could neglect other areas that are also at risk. Sugimoto mentioned that in Fukuoka, a place she used to work, people were less prepared for earthquakes because it wasn’t seen as a high-risk area, even though it had experienced damaging quakes before.
Geller added that while the Nankai Trough area is well-prepared, other regions might not be. This focus on the Nankai Trough can make people in other areas feel falsely secure, thinking they are safe when they might not be.
Table of Contents
::Visit our Trending News page for more……