What is Exit Poll 2024 : Lok Sabha Results 2024 Highlights

Exit Poll 2024, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have finally ended. It was a long process, and as you saw, yesterday was the seventh phase of voting. Now, it’s time for the results.

Many experts believe that since the election took so long, the Election Commission should pay more attention to it. You’ve probably noticed how hot it has been this time around. Since last evening, there’s been a lot of talk about exit polls.

, we will talk about exit polls and understand some basic things about them. First, let’s learn what an exit poll is.

Today, we will talk about what samples are in exit polls and whether these polls are accurate. We will look at some past history and discuss the important points from yesterday’s exit poll.

Elections, especially for the Lok Sabha, happen every five years. It is the responsibility of every citizen to participate. The more you pay attention and learn about it, the better your understanding will become.

This election was India’s 18th Lok Sabha election. It’s the largest democratic exercise in the world. No other country has such a big democratic process.

The election had seven phases and ended yesterday with the seventh phase. Now, we wait for the results. The voting started on April 19th.

What Are Exit Poll 2024 ?

Sometimes, the election process can feel long and tiring. People might get bored too. But let’s see what happens in the next election. Now, since the election is over, you might have noticed a lot of talk about exit polls everywhere.

So, what are exit polls? Exit poll 2024 try to predict the outcome of the election before the official results are announced on June 4th. People are curious to know the results as soon as voting ends.

However, it’s important to know what the Election Commission’s rules say. The Election Commission clearly states that you cannot reveal exit polls during the election period.

During elections, you can’t reveal exit poll 2024 until the elections are completely over. Now, what does it mean when we say the elections are over? Yesterday was the 7th and final phase of voting. If you know, you can enter any voting booth to cast your vote until 6 PM.

Exactly half an hour later, meaning after the entire voting process is finished, you can reveal exit polls. Because the cut-off time is 6 PM, you will start seeing exit polls from around 6:30 PM onwards.

Exit polls are done by interviewing people to guess the election results. I will explain the sample size later, but first, let me tell you that the Election Commission says no one can announce exit poll results during elections. This rule is to make sure people are not influenced.

For example, if after the first few phases it shows that BJP is winning many seats and Congress is getting fewer, it could affect how people vote in the next phases. So, they say you can only announce results after all phases of the election are over.

How are exit poll 2024 calculated :

To calculate an exit poll, there are several steps involved. First, there’s sampling. Sampling means selecting a small group of voters to represent the whole population. Since there are around 98 crore voters in the country, it’s impossible to ask everyone.

Next, there’s weightage. This means making sure the survey includes different types of voters. For example, you need to check how many young voters, male voters, female voters, and senior citizens were asked. The survey should be balanced and not just focus on one group.

Finally, experts analyze the collected data to understand the results.

When doing analysis, it’s important to remember that if the sample size is small, there can be errors. That’s why you often see a range in results. For example, if BJP is predicted to win 80 seats in UP, the range might be 50-60 or 60-70 seats. This range exists because of the margin of error.

You should keep this in mind. Now, let’s talk about sample size. In 1957, exit polls started with very small sample sizes. Even until a few decades ago, only about 20,000 people were asked for their opinions.

However, today, the sample size has become huge. Nowadays, up to 1 million people are surveyed before giving the final result of an exit poll.

Earlier this did not happen, but now the sample size of many people has become bigger. This increases the chances of the exit poll being correct. In previous elections, like in 2014 and 2019, some exit polls were right and some were wrong.For example, the performance of the alliance of NDA or BJP can be seen in 2014.

India Today’s exit poll from the last two elections is considered quite predictable and accurate. In 2014, India Today had projected 272 seats for the NDA, but it got more seats than that. The most accurate exit poll was of News 24 Chanakya.

They said that the NDA, which is BJP’s ally, would get 340 seats. They actually got around 336 seats, which was very close. Out of 543 seats, they predicted 346 and got 336, just 4 seats less.

For the UPA, led by Congress, it was a bad situation in 2014. They got around 45 seats. But in 2019, India Today and News 24 Chanakya made close predictions again. India Today predicted 339 to 365 seats for NDA and they got 352 seats. Chanakya also predicted about 350 seats for NDA.

So, News24 Today channel was very popular in 2014 and 2019. Along with it, India Today and Texas were also quite active. In 2019, the Congress Party was reduced to just 52 seats, and their allies got around 91 seats in total.

BJP and NDA Lead:

Yesterday, an exit poll 2024 came out, and it’s showing a big win for BJP and NDA. You probably already know this, so I don’t need to explain much. I can’t say anything for sure until the exact results come out on June 4th.

But if we look at past exit polls from 2014 and 2019, they were pretty close to the actual results. The two main ones are India Today Access and News 24 Today’s Chanakya. India Today predicts that NDA will get between 361 and 401 seats. Today’s Chanakya says it will be between 385 and 415 seats.

Prime Minister Modi had said in the Lok Sabha that NDA would get over 400 seats this time.

If the exit poll is somewhat accurate, then Prime Minister Modi’s words will be proven right. However, I must say that this is just an exit poll, and the actual result will be out on June 4th.

If you look at the average of all these polls, you’ll see that the NDA is expected to get around 360-370 seats. An interesting point is that out of all the exit polls, 10 have predicted that the NDA will get more than 350 seats, while 3 have predicted.